2011 Lightning Stakes Preview & Tips

2011 Lightning Stakes Preview & Tips

Flemington – Sat 19 February 2011

There is an 8 race meeting at Flemington featuring the Group 1 $750,000 Lightning Stakes over 1000 metres. The weight-for-age race has attracted a small but quality field of 10 sprinters ranging from three-year-olds to the seven-year-old Grand Duels, with Black Caviar making her return to racing. The betting market has her odds-on favourite and Hay List is the only other horse in the field under double figure odds. The track is currently rated as dead and is expected to be rain-affected.

Runners in the 2011 Coolmore Lightning Stakes at Flemington

Black Caviar ($1.40) is a four-year-old mare with a perfect race record of 8 wins from 8 runs. Those wins include a Group 1, four Group 2s and two Listed Races. She doesn’t just win – she sprints ahead and wins by several lengths. Unless she has lost a leg it will be hard to see anything beating her, and she could start even shorter than $1.40.

Hay List ($5) is said to be the best he’s been for a first-up start which must be pretty good considering this horse has won 12 of his 15 starts and had 3 wins and a second from 4 first-up starts. His last start in November was his worst ever racing performance when he only beat one runner home. Forget that run as the horse has blistering speed and should be able to make this a great race.

Crystal Lily ($15) won the 2010 Golden Slipper and hasn’t carried such a light weight since her 6^th in the Blue Diamond, a year ago. She is a good filly, but it is hard to see her troubling either Black Caviar or Hay List.

King Pulse ($15) has only had 4 race starts for 2 wins and a second. It is almost a year since his last start and this is a very ambitious race for such a lightly-raced horse.

Stirling Grove ($17) is a three-year-old from Adelaide. He visited Flemington last November and won a 3YO 1000 metre race on a slow track by over 2 lengths. He was narrowly beaten in Adelaide when returning to racing in January, and could be the surprise package in this race.

Jo’s Tips – Lightning Stakes

1. Black Caviar,  2. Hay List,  3. Stirling Grove