2008 Melbourne Cup – 4 November 2008

This year the Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup over 3200 metres carries prizemoney of $5.5 million with the winner taking $3.3 million of that plus another small fortune in trophies. A full field of 24 will face the starter at 3pm on Tuesday and one third of the field comes from the northern hemisphere. There are four horses from Ireland with three of these being from the Aidan O’Brien stable – Septimus, Honolulu, and Alessandro Volta – and Profound Beauty from the Dermot Weld stable. There are three English trained horses with two of these from the Luca Cumani stable – Mad Rush and Bauer– and Yellowstone from Jane Chapple-Hyam. Varevees is trained in France by Richard Gibson.

There are three New Zealanders – Nom Du Jeu, Boundless and Prize Lady, and the remaining thirteen are the Australian horses. John Sadler and Bart Cummings have two runners each and Danny O’Brien has three runners, to match the count of Aidan O’Brien. With a quarter of the field between them there is a high chance of this years Melbourne Cup winner having a trainer called O’Brien.

The top-weighted horse is Septimus, who will carry 58.5kg, which is 3.5kg more than any other horse in the field. The six-year-old Sadlers Wells stallion is lightly raced and has eight wins from his twelve starts. He has long breaks between his races but has won his last four in a row carrying weights of between 57.5 and 63.5kg. all over distances between 2800 and 3600 metres. It is easy to see why the handicappers put him first – his last race was the Irish St Leger on 13 September which he won by thirteen lengths on a heavy track. He is favourite in the early Cup market at $4.50.

Second favourite in the early market is Mad Rush who came fourth in the Caulfield Cup at his only start in Australia. He is used to carrying much more than his Cup weight of 53.5kg but is a horse who has come a close second a lot more times than he has won. The distance won’t trouble this horse. He will be ridden by Damien Oliver who rode him in the Caulfield Cup.

Nom Du Jeu and Profound Beauty are currently both on the third line of betting at $9. Nom Du Jeu came second in the Caulfield Cup after being at the back of the field for most of the race, and was running on strongly at the end, although he has yet to be proved at over 2400 metres. Profound Beauty is a Danehill mare trained by Dermot Weld, who knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup. He won with Vintage Crop in 1993, Media Puzzle in 2002 and came second behind Makybe Diva in 2004 with Vinnie Roe. Track watchers have been extremely impressed with her trackwork since she arrived.

On the next line of betting at $18 are the John Sadler trained pair Zipping and C’est La Guerre. Zipping came second in the Cox Plate behind Maldivian, running on well at the finish, while C’est La Guerre has ran some nice races while never looking like a winner.

The next three horses are all at $21 – Master O’Reilly, Bauer and Barbaricus. Master O’Reilly is a hard horse to follow and was very disappointing in the Cox Plate. Bauer won the Geelong Cup going away and will think he only has a feather on his back. Barbaricus looked as if he was going to win the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday but was beaten on the line by Theseo in a head-bobbing finish. He has never won beyond 1600 metres but has had some good placings in longer races and certainly has the miles in his legs for this. I have a soft spot for this horse and will putting him in my trifectas.

Bart Cummings has won this race more times than anyone else, and he has two starters Viewed and Moatize. Moatize appears to have peaked at the right time with his win in the 2500 metre SAAB Quality on Saturday earning him his place in the field with the bottom-weight of 50kg. He will be ridden by Clare Lindrop who has just made history for being the first female jockey to win the Victoria Derby  – and on a 100 to 1 shot at that!

by Jo Jackson

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